UK supermarkets could save money in their attempts to hit climate targets by selling a higher proportion of plant-based proteins, new research has claimed.
A study by sustainability consultancy Eunomia for climate NGO Madre Brava found even a ‘medium’ shift towards plant-based proteins – reducing the share of protein sourced from livestock from 72% to 50% – could deliver almost two-thirds of retailers’ 2030 supply chain emissions reduction targets, while potentially increasing profits.
This would involve rebalancing protein so plant-based sources would account for 29% (up from 15%) of protein foods sold, and upping the plant-based share of the dairy category from 4% to 32%, researchers revealed.
Published on Thursday during London Climate Action Week, the report found the shift would cut 14.5 million tonnes of CO2e emissions annually – equivalent to 64% of the sector’s near-term Forestry, Land & Agriculture (FLAG) emissions reduction target.
Researchers argued this would have a far greater impact than farm-level emissions reductions alone, which would deliver just 13% of the required cuts by 2030.
The scenario fell short of the Eat-Lancet Commission’s more ambitious Planetary Health Diet – under which livestock-based proteins would account for just 32% of protein consumption. However, this more modest “rebalancing” would align with the Climate Change Committee’s recommended dietary shift for 2050 (and in a shorter timeframe), while remaining commercially beneficial for retailers, the report claimed.
More than 90% of supermarket emissions come from supply chains, with FLAG emissions accounting for 84% of the total. Animal proteins, including meat, dairy, fish and eggs, are responsible for 79% of those emissions, the research showed.
Many supermarkets relied on producers “to adopt greener practices, but by 2030 this would likely deliver only a small proportion of the cuts needed and could require roughly £150m in capital investment from retailers”, it added.
“Supermarkets have made some inroads on climate, in areas such as transport and electricity in stores. But when it comes to food – by far the biggest source of emissions – they’re struggling,” said Madre Brava UK director Sara Ayech.
“This new research gives them a cheat sheet to hit climate targets. It will be impossible to do without selling more healthy protein like beans, pulses, veg and plant-based meat,” she added.
“It’s also a win for their customers, who can hedge against food inflation by buying more healthy protein like tofu, beans and lentils. As the price of meat has skyrocketed in recent years, plant proteins have become even cheaper in comparison.”
Star Molteno, principal consultant at Eunomia, said: “The analysis shows that shifting consumption to lower carbon diets is essential. More interestingly, the research shows this does not imply a cost burden to retailers, but could potentially save money, which is vital at a time when cost of living is of utmost concern and supply chains are under pressure.
“While reducing food waste and improving agricultural practices remain important, they won’t be enough on their own to meet short-term targets.”
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